Weekly Picks – November

Michigan at Iowa                              Noon     ESPN

Wolverines very much in the Legends race but need to break the 3 game losing streak at Iowa to continue their march. Michigan rebounded well from the loss to  Michigan State while Iowa suffered the great indignity of losing to Minnesota. Hawkeyes have been good at home but against inferior competition. It’s hard to believe the Iowa D can keep up with the Robinson the Michigan offense, but the home field advantage is big.

Michigan 30     Iowa 28

 

Texas Tech at Texas                        Noon     FX

Talk about a roller coaster ride – Tech destroyed Oklahoma in the first half and held on to the monumental upset win in Norman, then was blown out by Iowa State. So I guess in alternating weeks, the Raiders should play well against the hated Longhorns. Tech has the better offense but Texas has the better defense. Should be a fun game to watch.

Texas 38     Texas Tech 31

 

South Carolina at Arkansas          7:15pm ESPN

Rarely is a meeting of top ten teams in the SEC so low key, but that’s what happens when the GAME OF THE MILLENIUM is just a few hundred miles away at the same time. Still a critical game for both teams – Gamecocks can likely win the East with a win here while Arkansas can still get a BCS bowl big. USC has lost both their QB and more importantly, sensational RB Marcus Lattimore. Arkansas’s problem is an inability to start playing at kick-off instead of some point in the 2^nd half. The Hogs needed big comebacks to beat dreadful teams the past two weeks. If Arkansas plays like that, the Gamecocks will win. But the thinking here is that Arkansas will be fired up at home and without Lattimore, USC won’t be able to keep up.

Arkansas 30     South Carolina 23

 

Kansas State at OK State               8:00pm ABC/ESPN2

Cowboys have continued to roll, while the Wildcats got a rude reality check getting blown out by Oklahoma after a 2^nd quarter lead. KSU has a great running game but not on the same planet as OSU in the passing attack. Cowboys should be able to slow down the running game and K State does not have the D to get to OSU’s uber talented backfield.

Oklahoma State 41     Kansas State 28

 

Game of the Millennium

LSU at Alabama                                 8:00pm CBS

A rare 1 vs 2 match-up in the regular season has the nation’s attention and required some finagling for CBS to get this to prime time. Both teams have dominated their opponents with an amazing fast defense and great olines. LSU defense has faced much better offenses, shutting down Oregon in the opener, but Alabama’s offense has been more consistently successful . the visiting team has had success in this rivalry but once Nick Saban got the Tide rolling, a home loss is incredibly rare. Should be a classic!

Alabama 23     LSU 19

Pick Six – Previews of six big games of October 29

Michigan State at Nebraska         Noon                     ESPN

Spartans are on an amazing roll having defeated Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin, the latter on a Hail Mary with no time remaining. MSU can complete a remarkable October with a win in Lincoln and nearly lock up the Legends division. Huskers are 6-1 but only game against a currently ranked team was a blow- out loss to Wisconsin. So logically, Spartans should roll, right? Not so fast my friends.. Sparty must be completely emotionally drained and physically beat up after the past 3 games and Nebraska has the run oriented offense that can wear down a tired team. It does concern me that Husker’s passing offense is so bad, but Sparty’s offense overall is only 57^th in the country in scoring offense.

Nebraska 31     Michigan State 28

 

Georgia vs Florida                            3:30pm                 CBS

Not one of the marquee match-ups in this rivalry but just as important. UGA is very much in the SEC East race with just one conference loss; and the Gators are trying to salvage the season after 3 straight losses. Florida’s offense has been a disaster during the losing streak but former starting QB John Brantley is back and should give a big boost. Georgia has reeled off 5 straight wins since opening 0-2, but the Dawgs best win is, uh, well, at Tennessee? home over Miss State? In general though, UGA defense has improved and have super talent on offense. Some are saying Bulldog HC Mark Richt needs this win to keep his job and that should inspire the team. Its very tough (idiotic?) to pick against Florida in this rivalry, but if Georgia can’t win this year, it’s time to throw in the towel, drop to 1-AA and join the Colonial Conference.

Georgia 27   Florida 23

 

Oklahoma at Kansas State            3:30pm                 ESPN

Big Flop Bob comes off a stunning home loss to Texas Tech where the Red Raiders raced to a eye popping 31-7 lead and held on for the high scoring win. K-State has very different strengths, run’s the ball well but is not a good passing team. Big question about the Sooners state of mind – for a team that was expecting to be in the national title game, a big resetting of goals is necessary this week. K-State’s offense doesn’t have great numbers but was able to keep up with Texas Tech in a win at Lubbock. I just can’t believe OU is as bad as they looked last week.

Oklahoma 40     Kansas State 33

 

Stanford at Southern Cal              8:00pm                 ABC regional

Cardinal have destroyed every opponent this season, and not just with the arm of first NFL draft pick, QB Andrew Luck, but with a punishing running game that had 400+ yards on the ground. USC had the biggest win of the goofball era in the win over Notre Dame last week, and their QB, Matt Barkley having a great year. USC defense was solid against a mistake prone Irish team, but that won’t be enough against the explosive offense of Stanford.

Stanford 45     USC 30

 

Clemson at Georgia Tech              8:00pm                 ABC regional

The Tigers continue their surprising march to the Top 5 and maybe sneak into the national championship game if things fall their way, but detractors continue to expect the yearly Ole Clemson Choke. Tigers have given up huge amounts of points to both UNC and Maryland the last two weeks but found a way to win, mainly due to the impressive skill players they have on offense. Tech has lost two straight and looked bad in both losses. The Saturday night atmosphere on the Flats should be electric and Clemson has struggled in this series but it would appear Tigers have too much firepower to overcome.

Clemson 34     Georgia Tech 31

 

Wisconsin at Ohio State                                8:00pm                 ESPN

Rarely do losses get more heart breaking than the one Wisconsin suffered through last week at Michigan State, the final not coming until the replay official gave the Spartans a TD on the final play. Buckeyes have struggled all season, especially on offense, but got a good win at Illinois before the week off, so do have some momentum coming in. It’s hard to believe that on the Badgers did not play their first road game until October 22 (last week) and that may have played a role in the loss. Wisky will be much better prepared for this road game and Buckeyes will not have the offense to keep up.

Wisconsin 35     Ohio State 17

 

Pick Six – Weekly Predictions for Saturday October 15

Weekly Predictions Oct 15

 

Michigan at Michigan State          Noon                     ESPN

Spartan defense shut down QB Denard Robinson last year, but Wolverine D is much improved.

Michigan State 27     Michigan 24

 

Baylor at Texas A&M                      Noon                     FX

Another week, another explosive offense for the A&M defense to try to stop; and another shootout.

Texas A&M 45     Baylor 38

 

Oklahoma State at Texas              3:30pm                 ABC regional

Horn’s reeling from blowout loss to OU and gets another great offense; but not as great a defense.

Oklahoma State 38     Texas 28

 

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest       6:30pm                 ESPN3

Wake had an amazing +5 turnover margin in upset of FSU last week, but that won’t happen two weeks in a row.

Virginia Tech 31     Wake Forest 24

 

Florida at Auburn                             7:00pm                 ESPN

Gators face another road game without staring QB John Brantley, but Tigers QB Barrett Trotter had a bad day at Arkansas. UF is8-25-1 at Auburn.

Auburn 24    Florida 21

 

Arizona State at Oregon                                10:15pm               ESPN

Ducks high powered offense will be without RB LaMichael James but get the Sun Devils in pumped up Autzen Stadium with the Gameday crowd in attendance. ASU D keeps it close for a while.

Oregon 38     Arizona State 24

Sunday Night Quarterback – October 9

Oklahoma makes their statement

Both LSU and Alabama have dominated quality opponents on more than one occasion and on Saturday it was Oklahoma’s turn. The Sooners quickly turned the Red River Rivalry into the Red River Rout, blowing out Texas 55-17 in a game over by halftime. Oklahoma’s defense overwhelmed the young Texas QB’s and QB Landry Jones had the passing offense clicking. But don’t pencil the Sooner’s into the BCS championship game just yet – their other ‘quality’ wins don’t look as good and the season ends with a trip to Stillwater. Oklahoma State had to pull QB Brandon Weeden before halftime in order not to score 120 points against Kansas (Cowboys only managed 70).

 

It’s not as easy as it looks

Utah, Boise State, TCU and others have experienced tremendous success in recent years and have defeated several bigger name programs along the way. But what would happen if these teams had to play a talented team week after week? Utah is finding out. The Utes have lost back-to-back home games, after losing to Arizona State 35-14. It was the second straight home loss, and the second straight by at least 17 points. The Utes fall to 0-3 in the Pac 12. Utah, 10-3, 10-3, 13-0 overall the past three seasons, did not lose more than one conference game the past four years in the Mountain West.

 

Over-Rated

The most disappointing team so far is clearly Florida State. The Seminoles were pre-season picked top ten and were the heavy favorite in the ACC and a darkhorse candidate in the national title race. After a close home loss to #1 Oklahoma, the wheels have come off. A close loss to a much better than expected Clemson team was somewhat understandable with a back-up quarterback, but to lose at Wake Forest is inexcusable. The Deacons are improved, but still have nowhere near the talent FSU has and the Noles were a staggering -5 in turnover margin and committed 13 penalties. Its back to the drawing board for the season and the overall status of the program is the same it was in Bobby Bowden’s last few seasons.

 

Florida o-fer

But FSU isn’t the only program in the talent rich state that is struggling. Florida suffered it’s second straight blow-out loss and Miami was edged by Virginia Tech. When the dust had settled Sunday morning, no team from the state was in the AP poll for the first time since December 6, 1982. The string of 472 straight polls with at least one team from the state ends. Saturday was only the 2^nd time since October 14, 1978 that all three lost on the same day.

 

First year success

Michigan appeared to be on the way to their first loss of the season, trailing Northwestern and their talented QB by 10 at halftime. But the Wolverines roared out in 3^rd quarter dominating the Wildcats on both sides of the ball, and took a 4 point lead into the 4^th. From there, Michigan coasted to the 42-24 win to move to 6-0 on the season. Brady Hoke was not well known when he was hired away from San Diego State to rebuild the program after the Rich Rodriguez debacle, but he’s getting known now. No other first year coach has taken a program from unranked to ranked this season. And with the struggles the Buckeyes have undergone, Michigan has an excellent chance to end their losing streak to their hated rivals.

 

 

 

Weekly Predictions October 8th

Oklahoma vs Texas (Dallas)         12:00pm               ABC

The red river rivalry features two undefeated teams and great opportunities for both teams – for OU, to get back in the discussion as the best team in the country and for Texas, to completely move past last year’s disaster and validate their 4-0 record. Horns have improved on both sides of the ball since 2010 and fans at the Texas State Fair will hear some familiar names – Colt to Shipley. But OU has so much experience at QB, WR, and everywhere; it’ll be too much for the Texas youth to overcome.

Oklahoma 24     Texas 17

 

Florida at LSU                                     3:30pm                 CBS

Gators were mushed by Alabama and now go on the road, against a defense just as good, but without starting QB Brantley – ouch!

LSU 34     Florida 16

 

Iowa at Penn State                          3:30pm                 ABC regional

Both teams only have one loss but neither has played especially well. Lions defense is good and their loss is Alabama – Iowa’s is Iowa State.

Penn State 20     Iowa 17

 

Michigan at Northwestern           7:00pm                 Big Ten Network

Fun match-up between two teams with great offenses; Wolverines defense is improving but first road game of the season will be challenging.

Northwestern 34     Michigan 31

 

Auburn at Arkansas                        7:00pm                 ESPN

Both teams come off a big win, but stopping Arkansas’ offense will not be as easy as stopping Stephen Garcia.

Arkansas 34     Auburn 27

 

Georgia at Tennessee                    7:00pm                 ESPN2

Dawgs defense improved significantly from 2010 and an interesting match-up between the 2^nd best team in the nation in 3^rd down defense and the best team in converting 3^rd down. Home team has won 4 straight.

Tennessee 27     Georgia 24

Sunday Night Quarterback October 2

Where’s the D?

Texas Christian has led the nation in total defense for each of the last 3 seasons, and HC Gary Patterson has built his reputation on the defensive side of the ball even when key starters had to be replaced. But after giving up 40 points or more for the 2^nd time this year, the Horned Frogs are way down at #90 in total defense and have fallen out of the Top 25 for the first time in 3 years. TCU was bested by SMU 40-33 in OT and this after the season opening loss to Baylor 50-48. This last season before moving to the Big East will likely be the Frogs worst since finishing 8-5 in 2007.

Texas A&M stormed to a huge lead over Oklahoma State two weeks ago, and appeared to be coasting towards a big conference win; but the Aggies were undone by turnovers and a defense that was shredded by Cowboy QB Brandon Weeden to the tune of 438 yards. Last Saturday, A&M gave up 510 yards passing to Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson, the 2^nd straight week that the opposing QB set a school record for passing yards, and lost again after a big lead, 42-38 to the Hogs. It was the 5^th highest passing yards for a QB in SEC history; in spite of A&M’s staggering 381 yards rushing, the Aggies lost their 7^th straight to an SEC team.

And a special shout-out to Kansas, ranking 120^th in the nation in scoring defense; the Jayhawks have surrendered 42, 65, 45 points in their last 3 games. Kansas on average allows 545 yards per game; the all time record of 553, surrendered by Maryland in 1993, is well within reach. Remaining games against the powerful offenses of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M will likely add to that average.

 

No O

An ugly day in Columbus as the Ohio State Buckeyes scored 7 points or less for the second time this season, and looked even worse doing so. Michigan State held OSU to 178 yards total offense, including a paltry 35 yards on the ground. This follows the game two weeks ago where the Buckeyes were dominated by a Miami team that has now lost to Maryland and Kansas State. Buckeye QBs were sacked 9 times and lost to Michigan State after 7 straight wins.

Penn State was tied with Indiana 3-3 at half and wallowed through a mistake filled 16-10 win over the Hoosiers. This becomes the third time this season that the Lions have scored 16 points or less, after the 14-10 win over Temple two weeks ago. Penn State ranks 93^rd in the nation in points scored and may need to choose a QB to get more consistency on offense. The November 19^th showdown with Ohio State could be the first 0-0 tie in major college football since Oregon-Oregon State in ’83.

South Carolina entered the week undefeated and ranked in the Top 10 and were well positioned to win the SEC East and maybe more. But after Auburn’s woeful defense held the Gamecocks to 13 points, the division  is wide open again. Gamecock QB Stpehen Garcia has been suspended and reinstated to the team more often than can be counted but the hard numbers on the season don’t lie – 4 TDs and 9 INTs. The offense struggled the previous week against Vandy, but a dominant defense allowed South Carolina to win anyway. But against the SEC’s worst defense, South Carolina couldn’t get RB Marcus Lattimore going and the passing offense was awful.  Both Florida and Georgia, with a conference loss are now back in the division race.

 

Random thoughts:

Wisconsin is a legitimate national title contender – with super QB Russell Wilson operating behind a huge physical offensive line with a group of talented RB’s, the offense will be hard to stop. The name programs Wisky has remaining on the schedule include Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State. The toughest remaining game is probably at Illinois, which means a 12-0 season is likely then the Badgers would be favored in the first Big 10 Championship Game. LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma might be better teams but have much tougher schedules.

USC doesn’t have a great team, but Matt Barkley is having a sensational season. Barkley threw for a USC record 468 yards and 4 TDs in the 48-41 win over Arizona. His 14 TDs for the year are tied for 5^th in the nation.

Staying out west, congratulations are in order to Washington State after the comeback win over Colorado in the team’s inaugural Pac 12 game. The Buffs lead 27-17 with 5 minutes left but two quick TDs allowed the Cougars to get their 3^rd win of the season. The Cougars have already surpassed their win total of the last 3 seasons.

Connecticut made its case for an ACC invite by surrendering 479 yards passing to Western Michigan QB Alex Carder in the 38-31 home loss to the Broncos. Connecticut’s governor should have spent the week coaching the Huskies defensive backs instead of spending time campaigning for ACC membership.

Big game this week – Red River Rivalry – Texas appears to be back on track after last season’s disappointment so this should be an interesting game. High noon on ABC.

Weekly Picks Saturday October 1

Alabama at Florida                           8:00PM                 CBS

Tide has rolled over every opponent with a suffocating defense and better than expected offense. But the Bama D hasn’t faced the offensive play makers that the Gators have. Florida’s best win is over middling Tennessee but will have a loud crowd in the Swamp. Gators will keep this much closer than Tide’s other ranked opponents have.

Alabama 27     Florida 20

Nebraska at Wisconsin                  8:00PM                 ABC

Badgers have been rolling against embarrassing non-conference schedule, but now get a chance in the spotlight as they welcome the Huskers to Madison and the Big 10. QB Russell Wilson from NC State has given the ground oriented Badger offense a boost, which will be important against Nebraska’s defense. Huskers will be a ginormous step up in quality of opponent but Wisky is hard to beat at home. JUMP AROUND!

Wisconsin 31     Nebraska 23

Auburn at South Carolina             3:30PM                 CBS

Tigers crushed Gamecocks in their last meeting, the SEC Championship Game, but AU doesn’t have Cam Newton or Nick Fairley, and may miss Fairley more. AU’s defense has struggled in every game, and although Gamecock QB Stephen Garcia has looked awful at times, RB Marcus Lattimore has always come through. Gamecocks are better on both sides of the ball this year.

South Carolina 35     Auburn 20

Clemson at Virginia Tech               6:00PM                 ESPN2

An amazing run by the Tigers, knocking off ranked teams in back to back weeks. Meanwhile Va Tech has looked very pedestrian against inferior competition. Hokies have dominated the ACC since joining and are hard to beat in Blacksburg; meanwhile Clemson hasn’t played away from home yet this year. But the Tiger’s offensive weapons are so much better than the Hokies, the home field advantage won’t be enough.

Clemson 28     Virginia Tech 23

Arkansas vs Texas A&M                                12:00PM              ESPN

This game at Jerry World in Dallas has become a preview of SEC match-ups to come. Both teams are licking their wounds after disappointing losses to conference rivals last week. The Aggies blew a big first half lead mainly due to turnovers but the Hogs were dominated from start to finish. Both teams had defensive lapses, but Aggies have the better offense.

Texas A&M 34     Arkansas 27

Texas at Iowa State                         7:00PM                 FX

Rarely due the Horns and Cyclones meet with both undfeateds, and even more rare do they meet with Texas out for revenge after last season’s loss. Iowa State is off to a great start, following the wild upset of instate rival Iowa and with another win over a BCS conference (sortof) team in UConn. Texas appears back on track after last year’s dismal 7 loss season, but will have some trouble in Ames. Horns have a much better defense than Cyclones have seen all year.

Texas 31     Iowa State 21

Northwestern at Illinois                                12:00PM              ESPN2

The Ilini at 4-0 are one of the surprise teams in the nation while Northwestern looks to get back on track with the return of QB Dan Persa. Illinois has won with defense, including a hard fought 17-14 win over Arizona State and although the Wildcats will get a boost in Persa’s first game back, it won’t be enough against the Ilini D.

Illinois 27     Northwestern 19